VLC developed policy scenarios and modelled the expected impact on EV uptake in WA to 2061, to support RACWA advocacy for policy submissions to state and federal budget.

VLC developed a sales and stock model by fuel type, body type, household income, across metropolitan and regional WA to forecast EV uptake and assess lifecycle CO₂ emissions, equity impacts and policy costs, to compare and rank policy packages.

Client requirements

RACWA required a robust, evidence-based forecast for expected baseline EV uptake in WA, reflecting the current wind-back of EV incentive policies such as the Fringe Benefits Tax exemption, and expected impact of different policy initiatives to incentivise EV uptake. RACWA required an assessment of policy initiatives to support advocacy for state and federal government funding.

This assessment spans a value-for-money perspective (e.g. CO2 emissions saved per dollar of investment), as well as distributional analysis (EV uptake by market segment and impacts on total cost of vehicle ownership, across low/medium/high income households and across metropolitan and regional WA).

Outcomes

VLC developed an end-to-end EV uptake model in Python, forecasting vehicle sales and stock to 2061 by fuel type, body type, household income, across metropolitan and regional WA. The model draws on a diverse range of data sources, including including BITRE, ABS Census and VFACTS new car sales data.

VLC in association with Vincent Benezech designed and implemented a stated preference survey of 1,000 panellists across metropolitan and regional WA, which surveyed people’s preferences on vehicle purchase decisions based on generalised cost attributes such as financial purchase price and running costs, as well as non-monetary components relating to EV perceptions, including charging convenience and range anxiety. The SP survey results were used to inform the behavioural parameters in the vehicle sales discrete choice model.

VLC collaborated with RACWA to develop policy scenarios to model, including upfront purchase cost reductions, running cost reductions, increased charging infrastructure, and financial incentives to increase used EV model availability. VLC also performed sensitivity testing under different future assumptions such as sustained higher fuel prices.

VLC is delivered a high-impact report to support RACWA’s advocacy, including assessing lifecycle CO₂ emissions, equity impacts and policy costs, to compare and rank policy scenarios.