In 2018 VLC was engaged by DoIRD to review the modelling and forecasting of demand in the business cases for extensions of the MetroNet rail network in Perth.


Client requirements

DoIRD assesses each business case for major infrastructure projects.  For these assessments, they require a review of the methodology and results of the transport demand modelling.  For this project, VLC was engaged to review the business case for the proposed Thornlie line and Yanchep extensions of the MetroNet network.  DoIRD required a non-technical summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the modelling undertaken for the business case.  They also required an evaluation of the likely errors, uncertainties and omissions associated with the modelling.


Delivered outcome

The project entailed examination of the Business Case documents pertaining to the modelling of the demand for the metro. VLC provided a detailed analysis of the modelling and its strengths and weaknesses. It reported on omissions and errors and, where they existed, an assessment of the likely impact of the omission or error on the forecasts in the business case documents.  The reasonableness of the business case forecasts was assessed and reported on. The report included a high-level assessment of the risks associated with the modelling and its results.