Client requirements 

VLC was engaged by the Federal Government to review business cases of several large transport infrastructure projects. The project involved a strategic review of business cases and the models used for forecasting. The reviews aimed to assess the level of reliance on modelling forecasts in the economic evaluation of the infrastructure and to assess the level of realism in the forecasts and associated economic analysis.


Delivered outcome

VLC reviewed the main documents and appendices that contained the details of the modelling processes. VLC identified the major policies and drivers of transport demand, including population and employment, income and costs, and compared the forecasts of these to trends. VLC also assessed the impact of changes in policy and costs on the modelling forecasts and therefore on the economic evaluation. VLC benchmarked the performance of the project against similar projects in other cities.


VLC provided a report for each of the business case reviews. The report contained a detailed analysis of:

  • The input assumptions, including land use and transport network inclusions
  • The extent of modelling reliance in the economics analysis
  • Inclusions and omissions in the model
  • Impact of potential policy and cost changes
  • Comparison of trends and modelling forecasts
  • Benchmarking of results with similar projects in other cities
  • Assessment of the impact of uncertainties in individual inputs on the overall economic evaluation.