Toowoomba Second Range Crossing forecasting
Federal Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development
VLC was commissioned by the Federal Government to produce traffic demand and toll revenue forecasts for the planned Toowoomba Second Range Crossing project. The main objective of this work was to provide an independent assessment of the likely traffic demand and toll revenue generation of the project in 2021 and 2036 to verify the forecasts of the proposed toll road as made in the State’s business case report.
Work was undertaken in four key stages:
- The Zenith model of SEQ was expanded westward to allow more robust forecasting of the Toowoomba area, and the project area model refined and calibrated.
- A series of land use scenarios were developed, reflecting likely changes in economic development in the Toowoomba Second Range Crossing catchment as a result of the project’s construction.
- An origin-destination survey on the approaches to Toowoomba was conducted.
- A range of scenarios for 2021 and 2031 were tested. This included sensitivity to the various land use scenarios developed in step 1, as well as different project staging and tolling strategies.
VLC delivered a report containing robust demand forecasts for the Toowoomba Second Range Crossing project. The report also contained comparisons of these forecasts with those published in the State’s business case report, as well as possible explanations for differences between the sets of forecasts.